The bear market we’ve seen over the past few months has no doubt given some of us a hard time. While we’ve talked about how a crypto winter isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it would still be better if we could get a better understanding of what would help Bitcoin recover.  

How long is the Bitcoin bear market expected to last?

Let’s start with the basics of the bear market—what it means for us, how long it’s predicted to last, and how Bitcoin will recover. This brings us to two points: first, bear markets aren’t an inherent problem with Bitcoin, and second, they happen more frequently than you might think. 

Take a look back at some of the past bear markets and crypto winters the market has gone through. As it stands, it looks like the factors affecting traditional financial institutions are just as capable of affecting the cryptocurrency market. The S&P 500, a market cap-weighted index of 500 of the U.S.’ leading publicly traded companies, has shown downturns that run parallel to those seen in the Bitcoin market. 

Based on its history, Bitcoin bear markets last about 306 days on average. Remember that this is an average that can be affected positively or negatively by the factors that will be discussed later on. 

The current bear market we’re experiencing is the fifth one in Bitcoin’s history. It began in November 2021 when prices of major tokens began to take a turn for the worse. Prices have since then found their floor and have been slowly trying to recover over the past few months. This begs the question: when will Bitcoin go back up, and what will it take?

Will Bitcoin recover if these events take place?

With all that said, let’s go through the different factors that might help end this crypto winter and see how we can use this information to guide our Bitcoin trades and transactions. 

Bitcoin ETF approval

Unlike traditional stocks that are specific to company shares, an exchange-traded fund, or ETF is a type of fund that contains different asset types. The approval of a Bitcoin ETF that is tied directly to the price of Bitcoin is something that has eluded the Bitcoin community. 

ETFs enable people (both within and outside the Bitcoin community) to invest in BTC through traditional stock markets. Allowing for Bitcoin ETFs means we are diversifying the demography of Bitcoin stakeholders. With more stakeholders, Bitcoin can have a more stable base on which to operate. 

Federal support 

The United States has famously been on the fence about Bitcoin adoption. Each state has its own rules regarding Bitcoin, with some showing full support while the rest restrict or prohibit the currency.

The U.S. government has been hesitant when it comes to Bitcoin discussions—a reversal of this stance would boost confidence in the Bitcoin market. Should the federal government decide to accept Bitcoin, we could see a drastic improvement in adoption as more businesses and consumers use Bitcoin for daily transactions. 

More companies accept Bitcoin payments

Having more companies that accept Bitcoin payments would greatly improve the general outlook because it decisively shows confidence in its utility. Having more confidence in BTC would mean that more investors would find it attractive as an investment option. With more investments coming into the market, Bitcoin will have more to play with in the international market. 

More immediate benefits include lower transaction fees, the reduction of fraudulent chargebacks, and the ability to avoid potential problems that come with currency conversion. 

Widespread adoption of BTC as legal tender

El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as a legal tender gained a lot of attention when it was first announced. After all, a country accepting this digital currency as legal tender meant that Bitcoin was moving faster and more decisively than what many expected. 

The country adopting the currency stands to gain a few benefits as well. Transactions on the blockchain are faster and cheaper because there are fewer intermediaries, Bitcoin having an anti-inflationary system (21 million BTC cap), and the currency itself being censorship resistant. 

Countries like Brazil, Ukraine, Panama, and Cuba are already considering following in El Salvador’s footsteps and accepting BTC as legal tender. Should they follow through with those plans, the eventual rise in Bitcoin adoption could boost the currency’s value. 

Bitcoin halving

Once miners have mined 210,000 blocks, the Bitcoin halving occurs, dividing the reward that these miners get for their efforts in half. It’s an event that everyone in the community watches out for since its arrival brings both good and bad tidings to the market. 

Approaching the halving, Bitcoin would tend to see a bear market as investors and miners allocate assets in preparation for it. The Bitcoin halving cycle shows us that Bitcoin tends to go on a bull run after halvings. This bull run could potentially pull us out of the crypto winter and bring Bitcoin back to its competitive status. 

Ethereum upgrades

We know what you’re thinking, “How could Ethereum possibly help Bitcoin recover?” The Ethereum blockchain had recently undergone the Merge, an event much awaited by the Ethereum community in which the blockchain transitioned from Proof-of-Work (POW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This was just the first of many Ethereum upgrades, with more to come. 

Ethereum’s upgrades are seen to reinvigorate the market’s interest in cryptocurrencies as a whole (including Bitcoin). The reason for this? While they might be competitors, Bitcoin and Ethereum fall under the same asset category—improvements in one asset mean that confidence in that asset category, as a whole, benefits as well. 

Make the most out of the situation

So, will Bitcoin recover? Without making this any longer than it has to be: yes. The bear market we’re experiencing now might have worried more than a few of us, but we can see that this isn’t the end for Bitcoin, far from it. This crypto winter is just another speed bump in Bitcoin’s history, a speed bump we can easily strategize around. 

This is why doing your own research is popular advice in the Bitcoin community. It won’t do you well to rely on rumors and speculations. Sometimes, the best way to be on top of the situation is to analyze things yourself.