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Key takeaways

• Despite a week of global tension, Bitcoin has shown resilience, posting a modest +1.24 % gain supported by strong fundamentals and institutional interest.

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Bitcoin had a turbulent week;  its price shot then slid steadily, with a few bumps along the way, but the coin made a remarkable recovery over the weekend to close the week approximately 1% higher. 

It kicked things off around $110,300 on June 9th, but by June 11th and 12th, it had taken a sharp dive. Dropping to roughly $105,700, and then slipping just a bit more to around $105,720. That stretch marked the steepest part of the decline.

There were a couple of attempts to bounce back. On June 13th, for instance, it clawed its way up to about $106,120. 

Still, the broader trend pointed downward. By June 15th, Bitcoin hovered near $105,600, and as of June 16th, it had claimed $107,196. That’s more than a 1% rise in a week. Not bad, but definitely better than what we were expecting given what’s going on in the world right now. 

This modest increase comes on the heels of a strong rally. Just last month, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $111,891. So what changed?

A few things could be at play. Here is what we think:

1. Bitcoin holds its ground as the Iran-Israel conflict escalates.

As tensions flare between Iran and Israel, financial markets are feeling the heat. Crypto is no exception. 

When Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion” and Iran hit back with “Operation True Promise III,” the market responded fast and hard. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped about 5.5%, slipping from $109,000 to $102,800. 

Ethereum, Solana, and the rest of the altcoin crowd weren’t spared either. Altogether, more than $230 billion in market value vanished in 24 hours. Nearly $1.2 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across exchanges.

Despite the chaos, sentiment didn’t collapse. There was some uptick in fear, but not the full-on panic you might expect. More importantly,  institutions didn’t blink. 

Strategy kept flashing buy signals, and on Monday, June 16th, they announced that they had bought an additional 10,100 BTC.  Running with the momentum, spot Bitcoin ETFs quietly pulled in $1.3 billion in inflows during the same week. Underneath the surface volatility, the foundation held firm.

That, of course, reignited the long-running “Is Bitcoin a safe haven?” debate. Gold surged past $3,400, U.S. Treasuries rallied, and Bitcoin? It dipped. Clearly, in moments of global shock, BTC still behaves like a risk-on asset.

But here’s where it gets interesting. History has a funny way of repeating itself, or at least rhyming. Back in October 2024, when Iran launched a major strike on Israel, Bitcoin fell 8.8%… and then rallied more than 80% in the months that followed.

👉Related: Why Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? Can We Use Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge?

2. The market is taking a breather, but bullish momentum lingers.

Back in December 2024, when Bitcoin was hovering between $98K and $100K, daily stablecoin inflows into centralized exchanges (CEXs) hit a record high of $131 billion.

Fast-forward to June, and that number has dropped to a much lower figure of around $5 billion below the 365-day average of $75 billion, and a steep $61 billion off the peak. In other words, exchange-bound liquidity has cooled off noticeably since the start of the year.  Still, today’s levels are well above what we saw early in the bull run, so it’s not exactly a bearish signal, more like a breather.

The pullback suggests the market is shedding some of its excess enthusiasm. Yet with BTC still holding above the $100K mark, it’s clear that most participants aren’t rushing for the exits. Instead, they seem content to stay put and ride it out at least for now.

3. Mixed signals from US inflation data stir market jitters.

The latest batch of U.S. inflation data gave markets a bit of a roller coaster ride. First, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed annual inflation at 2.4%. A touch lower than expected. That gave crypto a quick boost, as traders started whispering (again) about potential Fed rate cuts.

But the optimism didn’t last long. The next day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than forecast at 2.6%, throwing cold water on the dovish hopes. The conflicting signals left investors guessing, and some took the opportunity to lock in profits amid the uncertainty.

At a bill signing ceremony on Thursday, former President Donald Trump took another swing at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, claiming the U.S. government could save $600 billion annually in short-term debt payments if the Fed cut rates by two full percentage points.

“I’m not planning to fire him,” Trump said before launching into a blistering critique. “We’re going to spend $600 billion a year because of one numbskull that sits there and says, ‘I don’t see enough reason to cut the rates now.’ And the problem he’s got, and I explained to him… cut your rates now, there’s no inflation. We got it down, we got prices down.”

His comments come as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to hold its ground. In May, the Fed announced it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, calling it the most appropriate level to support both maximum employment and price stability. The rate has remained steady since December, when the Fed last trimmed it by 0.25%.

Trump and Powell reportedly met last month after a fresh wave of criticism from the former president. According to a brief statement from the Fed following the meeting, Powell did not discuss interest rate expectations with Trump. Instead, the conversation focused on broad economic conditions.

“Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy,” the Fed noted, “except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.”

Meanwhile, inflation data continues to walk a fine line. Consumer prices rose 2.4% in May, just under the 2.5% economists had predicted, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Market sentiment for the end of June

Analysts are still leaning bullish but with a hand hovering over the brakes. Some strategists see a potential summer rally pushing Bitcoin toward $120K or even $125K, as long as it holds the line around $105K. 

Tom Lee of Fundstrat is going further, predicting a year-end range between $150K and $250K, citing expanding global liquidity as a key driver. Bernstein’s analysts are also upbeat, pegging a $200K target based on ETF inflow momentum.

Retail sentiment remains broadly positive. Surveys suggest many still expect Bitcoin to post significant gains by year-end. However,  recent choppy price action has caused a portion of retail traders to shift into “wait-and-see” mode.

Institutions, for their part, are staying in, but treading carefully. While some recent ETF outflows hint at profit-taking or sector rotation, the big players haven’t left the table. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold more than 1.13 million BTC, reflecting a long-term commitment even as managers stay vigilant about volatility.

As we move through the second half of June, the tone is best described as guarded optimism. Easing inflation, strong liquidity conditions, and rising crypto adoption continue to support the bull case. If economic data plays along and the Fed turns even slightly dovish, Bitcoin could make a run at fresh highs above $ 115 K.

But the risks haven’t gone anywhere. Geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory curveballs, or sudden institutional selling could jolt the market. Investors should keep a close eye on ETF flows, Fed language, and key support zones, especially around $100K.

Bitcoin performance month to date (MTD)

~+3.5% increase

From mid-May to mid-June 2025, Bitcoin’s price action has been anything but boring. The past month delivered a mix of bullish breakthroughs and sharp corrections, with plenty of volatility along the way. While BTC ultimately ended the stretch in the green, it wasn’t exactly a smooth climb.

The rally kicked off around May 16th, when Bitcoin was trading near $103,100. From there, it caught a strong bid and surged through the back half of the month, topping out at a new all-time high of roughly $111,891 by May 23rd. That move was powered in large part by continued institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were still pulling in fresh capital, and overall sentiment remained upbeat following earlier gains.

But after hitting that high, Bitcoin didn’t hold its ground for long. A wave of profit-taking and broader market jitters triggered a pullback, trimming some of the gains and reminding traders that volatility hasn’t gone anywhere.

Bitcoin performance year-over-year (YoY)

~+62% increase

From June 2024 to June 2025, Bitcoin has put on an absolute show. After a tough stretch in 2022, the past year marked a clear return to bullish form. One of the most impressive runs in recent memory. The momentum wasn’t random, either. It was driven by a mix of macroeconomic shifts and crypto-specific breakthroughs that kept fuel on the fire.

We’ll monitor crypto market activity and share a fresh update following Monday, June 23, 2025.

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Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can change rapidly; the prices and trends reported here, including those sourced from CoinMarketCap.com, TabTrader, and other references, may not reflect real-time values at the time of reading.

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